Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
